If a coin was flipped and it came up heads, would it be more likely to come up tails the next time? If a baseball player normally gets a hit 30% of the time but has no hits after three tries, is he “due” for a hit, in the sense that he is more likely
Base Rate Fallacy Definition Imagine that you meet Tom one evening at a party. He is somewhat shy and reserved, is very analytical, and enjoys reading science fiction novels. What is the likelihood that Tom works as a computer scientist? The answer depends on both the knowledge you have about Tom and the number of
Planning Fallacy Definition The planning fallacy refers to a specific form of optimistic bias wherein people underestimate the time that it will take to complete an upcoming task even though they are fully aware that similar tasks have taken longer in the past. An intriguing aspect of this phenomenon is that people simultaneously hold both